Canada’s Energy Advantage: Three Stocks That Could Benefit Most
A Canadian policy speech, a stressed oil market, and a simple investment story.
Brian Lee Crowley is the managing director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a well-known Canadian public-policy organization. In a recent Wall Street Journal opinion piece adapted from his March 9, 2026 speech in Ottawa, he argued that Canada’s best course is not to become less connected to the United States, but more valuable to it.
For investors, that matters because the real issue is not politics. It is energy security. Recent conflict tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has reminded markets that energy supply from unstable regions can be disrupted quickly. The IEA says global oil supply is projected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March 2026 because of conflict-related disruption, and the EIA continues to describe Hormuz as the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
That creates a simple investment theme. Safe, nearby, reliable energy becomes more valuable when the world feels less stable. Canada already matters enormously to the U.S. energy system. U.S. crude imports from Canada hit a record 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024, and official Canadian data show that almost all Canadian crude exports go to the United States.
In our view, Canada’s strongest path forward is practical rather than emotional: produce, transport, and export more energy; strengthen infrastructure; and become even more indispensable to North America. If that happens, the companies that own the reserves and the “toll roads” of the system could enjoy growth beyond what the market already expects.
Our top three ideas are these without a Canadian shift:
Enbridge (ENB) — Expected 12-month total return: 9% to 13%
Enbridge is one of the most important energy infrastructure companies in North America. It operates pipelines and related assets that move oil and gas, which makes it a steadier way to invest in the theme than a pure producer. Enbridge reported record 2025 results, a secured growth backlog of about $39 billion, and another annual dividend increase.
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — Expected 12-month total return: 10% to 14%
Canadian Natural Resources is a large owner of long-life oil and gas reserves. That matters in a world where dependable supply from stable countries may deserve a premium. The company reported record 2025 production, growing reserves, and another dividend increase, which supports our view that it is one of the strongest ways to invest in a more strategically important Canada.
TC Energy (TRP) — Expected 12-month total return: 8% to 12%
TC Energy is another major infrastructure name, with important exposure to natural gas. That is especially relevant as North American power demand rises from industry, LNG exports, and AI-related electricity needs. TC Energy reported higher 2025 comparable EBITDA, a new dividend increase, and a forecast for major long-term growth in North American gas demand.
Our view
The larger lesson is straightforward. When the world becomes less secure, geography matters more. Canada has energy, scale, proximity, and an existing connection to the U.S. market. If Canada chooses the practical path and deepens that relationship, Enbridge, Canadian Natural Resources, and TC Energy appear to be three of the clearest equity beneficiaries.
Disclosure
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the opinions of Harvest Portfolio Management as of the date of publication. It is not personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
