How to Play Greenland & Space Warfare (2026-2031)
HISTORICAL CONTEXT: FROM COLD WAR OUTPOST TO 21ST CENTURY PIVOT
The United States has viewed Greenland as a strategic necessity since World War II. In 1946, the Truman administration offered Denmark $100 million in gold for the island—a proposal declined but followed by the 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement, which established Pituffik (pronounced: pee-TOO-feek) Space Base.
In 2026, the context has shifted from passive surveillance to active dominance. Following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, the administration officially categorized the acquisition of Greenland as an absolute national security necessity. As of mid-January 2026, negotiations between Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk have reached a stalemate. The U.S. has offered a purchase price of approximately $600 billion, coupled with threats of 25% tariffs on those who oppose the deal. Denmark has reaffirmed Greenland’s sovereignty, while the Greenlandic parliament has stated they are open for business, but not for sale.
THE PEACEFUL PATH AND THE URGENCY OF ACTION
To avert a military flashpoint and a breakdown of NATO, the Arctic Sentry framework has emerged. This strategy shifts the focus from ownership to functional control through a permanent NATO mission. The urgency is driven by four critical factors: the China rare earth monopoly, the deployment of the Golden Dome missile shield, the necessity of GPS-independent navigation, and a proposed U.S. defense budget increase to $1.5 trillion. Greenland holds 10% of global rare earth reserves, securing which is the only path to U.S. high-tech independence. Furthermore, the Golden Dome project requires Greenlandic ground-based radar to track hypersonic threats in real-time. Directed-energy weapons like the Iron Beam and magnetic navigation systems are now central to this defense architecture, providing a low-cost per shot and jam-proof maneuvering.
OUR VIEW
As your portfolio manager, we first remove the noise and emotion to view geopolitical events in terms of their potential financial dislocations and strive to provide opportunities to you without political bias. Therefore, we believe the following companies represent an opportunity to your portfolio.
LOCKHEED MARTIN (LMT) | POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +16%
As the primary integrator for the Golden Dome, Lockheed has partnered with Israeli firm Rafael to adapt the Iron Beam high-energy laser for U.S. and Arctic markets. Their systems provide the pinpoint accuracy needed to defend Arctic infrastructure at a fraction of the cost of traditional interceptors. Recent Q3 2025 earnings of $6.95 beat estimates, and with Q4 2025 results due January 29, 2026, the firm is well-positioned for the upcoming $1.5 trillion budget cycle.
NORTHROP GRUMMAN (NOC) | POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +14%
Northrop dominates deep-space radar and inertial navigation systems. They are pioneering hybrid autonomous navigation that combines sensor fusion to ensure precision in GPS-denied environments. With earnings reporting on January 27, 2026, and a Q3 2025 EPS beat of $1.24, the firm’s B-21 Raider and Sentinel programs remain core pillars of the 2026 Arctic strategy.
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL (HON) | POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +15%
Honeywell is the leader in alternative magnetic navigation architecture. Their magnetic anomaly aided navigation allows aircraft and drones to navigate by detecting variations in earth’s magnetic field, rendering adversary jamming ineffective. This "GPS-independent" tech is a mandatory requirement for all 2026 Arctic defense contracts.
PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES (PLTR) | POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +10%
Palantir’s AI platform is the operating system for the Arctic Sentry mission. It fuses data from underwater sensors and satellites to identify incursions. While the stock saw profit-taking to start 2026, its 63% YoY revenue growth and record EBIT margins make it the go-to platform for integrating Iron Beam and magnetic nav data into a unified theater picture.
ELBIT SYSTEMS (ESLT) | POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +18%
As the key provider of the laser source for the Iron Beam project, Elbit is integral to the transition toward directed-energy defense. Their participation in global navigation systems for GPS-denied theaters makes them a dual-threat growth asset in this new cold-weather reality. Consensus ratings remain a Strong Buy for 2026.
ROCKET LAB (RKLB) | POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +45%
The leader in responsive space. Their ability to launch small satellites on short notice is vital for replacing orbital assets targeted by adversary anti-satellite weapons. RKLB is the high-beta growth play in the space infrastructure sector, benefiting from the rapid expansion of the Golden Dome satellite constellation.
CONCLUSIONS:
THE OPPORTUNITY
By 2031, we anticipate Greenlandic minerals will be the primary source for western defense supply chains. Access and control are the imperatives.
Space is now a contested warfighting theater and now is the time to position for growth.
Arctic shipping and resource extraction will be normalized by 2031.
We recommend an overweight position in these space and arctic equities as we navigate the next 12 months and toward the long-term strategic horizon.
Please see Special Report
Rocket Lab Corporation below
JANUARY 18, 2026
ROCKET LAB CORPORATION (RKLB)
POTENTIAL 1-YEAR RETURN: +45%
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE AND THE KEY VARIABLE
From a global perspective, the key variable moving the stock is "Scarcity of Scalable Launch." With SpaceX moving toward a potential $1.5 trillion IPO in late 2026, global governments and commercial constellations are desperate for a Western "Alternative Launch Provider" to avoid total reliance on a single entity. (A commercial constellation refers to a group of satellites owned and operated by private companies, rather than government agencies, that work together in coordinated orbits to provide services such as global communications, Earth observation, data relay, or internet access. These constellations typically consist of dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of satellites, enabling comprehensive coverage nd consistent service for commercial customers around the world).
Rocket Lab is the only firm positioned to capture this demand.
LEADERSHIP: SIR PETER BECK
Founder Peter Beck continues as CEO and Chairman. A tool-and-die apprentice turned knighted engineer, he is perceived as a "pragmatic visionary." The market values his engineering-first discipline, which has achieved high vertical integration with 1/10th the capital of major competitors.
TOP ANALYST PERSPECTIVE: MORGAN STANLEY (KRISTINE LIWAG)
As of January 2026, Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley is the top-rated buy-side voice for the space sector. Her recent upgrade to "Overweight" with a $105 price target reflects a shift in institutional consensus from viewing Rocket Lab as a niche launcher to a primary national security partner.
THE KEY DRIVER: BACKLOG CONVERSION AND NEUTRON READINESS
Liwag identifies the conversion of a record $1.1 billion backlog—specifically the $816 million SDA missile-tracking contract—as the primary fundamental driver. This shift moves the company from speculative R&D into a reliable defense prime tier.
KEY METRICS
Current Price: $96.30, Market Capitalization: $51.4 Billion, PEG Ratio: NM, P/S Ratio: 91.8x,
P/B Ratio: 34.64x, Gross Margin: 32%, Revenue Growth: +52% YoY
CONCLUSION:
By 2031, orbital infrastructure will be as essential as terrestrial utilities. For the aggressive investor, the near-term opportunity lies in securing positions before the Neutron rocket’s Q1 2026 qualification flight, which is expected to re-rate the stock as it begins competing for mega-constellation deployments globally.
