Harvest Portfolio Management — Strategic Commodities Note / October 2025
China’s recent escalation of rare-earth export controls underscores its dominance in global technology and defense supply chains. The United States and its allies are accelerating efforts to secure mine-to-magnet capacity, yet remain dependent on China for several heavy rare earths. Over the next 12–36 months, expect sustained volatility, premium pricing, and a deliberate re-ordering of industrial supply chains. The following companies, each domiciled outside China, are positioned to benefit from a more restrictive trade environment.
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)
Lynas remains the largest rare-earth producer outside China, with operations in Australia and Malaysia and a new partnership with Noveon to produce finished magnets in the United States. Its integration into U.S. defense and EV supply chains gives it direct exposure to policy tailwinds. Execution risk lies in permitting and cost management across multiple jurisdictions, but Lynas stands as the Western world’s cornerstone rare-earth producer.
MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP)
MP Materials operates the only integrated U.S. rare-earth mine and is developing downstream magnet production at its Texas facility. Supported by the Department of Defense and long-term offtake contracts with General Motors, MP offers investors a direct channel to America’s re-industrialization strategy. The primary risks are schedule delays in ramping production and limited heavy-REE separation capabilities.
Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU)
Iluka’s Eneabba refinery in Western Australia is set to become the first large-scale heavy rare-earth separation facility in the West. Backed by Australian government financing, Iluka’s focus on dysprosium and terbium positions it as a critical supplier to allied nations seeking non-Chinese sources. Cost discipline and construction execution remain key catalysts.
Neo Performance Materials Inc. (TSX: NEO)
Neo operates Europe’s first commercial-scale NdFeB magnet plant in Estonia and supplies magnetic materials to the automotive and wind-energy sectors. It benefits from Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which rewards regional production and recycling. Neo’s long-term value hinges on feedstock security and its ability to scale profitably as demand for European magnets accelerates.
Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU)
Energy Fuels’ White Mesa facility in Utah has begun producing high-purity rare-earth oxides from U.S.-sourced monazite and plans to expand into heavy REE separation. Its integration of uranium recovery provides a second revenue stream and potential synergy in government strategic-materials programs. The company’s challenge remains securing consistent monazite feedstock and managing capital costs for expansion.
Portfolio Construction Insight:
Harvest recommends diversifying exposure across the rare-earth supply chain: Lynas and MP for core production, Iluka and Neo for midstream processing, and Energy Fuels for early-stage domestic optionality. These companies are beneficiaries of industrial policy rather than short-term commodity cycles. Investors should anticipate episodic volatility tied to trade headlines, defense spending, and policy announcements.
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